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EVENT: OPERATION EPIC FURY — US-ISRAEL STRIKES ON IRAN
DATE: FEB 28, 2026
BRENT: $--
GOLD: $--
DXY: --
HORMUZ: AT RISK
SCENARIO: B — PROTRACTED
SCENARIO: Active Probability: 45%

MARKET OVERVIEW — OPERATION EPIC FURY

Real-time scenario-adjusted financial impact model. Switch scenarios above to recalculate all metrics.

⚠
CRITICAL EVENT — FEB 28, 2026
US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran across 9+ cities. Supreme Leader Khamenei killed. Iran has retaliated against US bases in Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain. 150 tankers stalled at Strait of Hormuz. Markets reopen Monday.
Brent Crude Est.
$82–$95
avg Q2 2026
+$13 vs pre-strike
S&P 500 Est. Impact
–10% to –20%
peak-to-trough
Risk-off shock
Gold Target
$5,600–$6,200
safe haven demand
+5% to +16%
Global GDP Impact
–0.5% to –1.2%
full year 2026
Slowdown, no recession
SECTOR IMPACT HEAT — SCENARIO ADJUSTED
ASSET CLASS PERFORMANCE EST.
OIL PRICE — HISTORICAL SHOCK PATTERNS
RISK PROBABILITY MATRIX
GEOGRAPHIC EXPOSURE MAP

SECTOR ANALYSIS

Impact assessment across 12 major economic sectors. Returns are scenario-adjusted estimates for short and medium-term performance.

SECTOR SHORT TERM (1-2W) MED TERM (1-3M) SIGNAL KEY DRIVER TOP STOCKS
SECTOR RISK/REWARD RADAR
SECTOR RECOVERY TIMELINE
SECTOR IMPACT — SHORT vs MEDIUM TERM

ASSET CLASS DEEP DIVE

Cross-asset performance estimates under each conflict scenario. Adjust scenario to see full recalculation.

Crude Oil (Brent)
$82–95
Protracted conflict premium
Gold (XAU/USD)
$5,600–6,200
Safe haven demand elevated
USD Index (DXY)
+1.5% to +2.5%
Safe haven flows
Bitcoin
–5% to –15%
Risk-off rotation
ASSET CORRELATION MATRIX
SAFE HAVEN FLOW ANALYSIS
OIL PRICE TRAJECTORY — 3 SCENARIOS
BOND YIELDS — FLIGHT TO SAFETY

COMPANY-LEVEL ANALYSIS

Individual company impact assessments across beneficiary and adversely-affected categories.

COMPANYTICKERSECTOR EST. RETURN (SHORT)EST. RETURN (MED) RATIONALE
COMPANYTICKERSECTOR EST. RETURN (SHORT)EST. RETURN (MED) RISK FACTOR
COMPANY IMPACT — SCENARIO WATERFALL

COUNTRY-LEVEL FINANCIAL IMPACT

Macroeconomic analysis for 14 countries most exposed to the conflict and its economic spillovers.

GDP IMPACT BY COUNTRY — 2026 EST.
INFLATION IMPACT BY COUNTRY

INTERACTIVE FINANCIAL MODEL

Adjust parameters to model custom scenarios. All outputs recalculate in real-time.

MODEL INPUTS
OIL PRICE (Brent $/bbl) $88
CONFLICT DURATION (months) 6 mo
HORMUZ CLOSURE PROBABILITY 20%
IRANIAN CYBERATTACK PROBABILITY 55%
RISK-OFF INTENSITY (1–10) 7
OPEC+ RESPONSE (0=none → 10=full offset) 4
PORTFOLIO OIL EXPOSURE (%) 10%
PORTFOLIO DEFENSE EXPOSURE (%) 3%
MODEL OUTPUTS — REAL-TIME
Implied Brent
$88
model output
S&P 500 Impact
–12.4%
estimated drawdown
Gold Target
$5,720
safe haven target
US CPI Impact
+1.6%
annualized add'l
Global GDP Delta
–0.8%
2026 est.
Defense Sector
+14.2%
medium term est.
PORTFOLIO P&L ESTIMATE ($1B BASE)
MONTE CARLO — OIL PRICE DISTRIBUTION
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS — KEY VARIABLES

STRATEGIC PLAYBOOKS

Sector-specific corporate strategies for navigating geopolitical conflict. Industry-proven routes drawn from historical precedents.

🔐
UNIVERSAL PRIORITY: CYBERSECURITY ELEVATION
Iran's IRGC maintains one of the most capable state-sponsored cyber units globally. Following Khamenei's killing, Iranian cyber retaliation is near-certain. All organizations should immediately elevate to maximum cyber posture — regardless of industry.

EVENT TIMELINE & DECISION TRIGGERS

Chronological event tracker and key decision watchpoints that will determine market trajectory.

CONFLICT TIMELINE
DECISION TRIGGERS — MARKET WATCHPOINTS
TRIGGERMARKET IMPACTPROBABILITY
HISTORICAL COMPARABLES — RECOVERY PATTERNS
SCENARIO TRANSITION PROBABILITIES